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How Merkel broke the EU

Angel Merkel, far from being Europe’s savior is gradually, if unwittingly, destroying it.

By MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG

6/28/18, 4:00 AM CET


Updated 6/28/18, 2:21 PM CET

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Illustration by Glenn Harvey for POLITICO


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BERLIN — Angela Merkel’s response to Europe’s refugee crisis has earned the German leader a reputation the world over as a modern-day Jeanne d’Arc, a bold defender of Western ideals against a populist onslaught.

“I have immeasurable respect for Angela Merkel,” former U.S. Vice President Al Gore said during a visit to Berlin this week. “I think she’s an outstanding leader faced with a very difficult set of challenges.”

While that view persists across much of the West, at home, questions about her leadership are growing louder by the day. Beyond the domestic concerns, more and more of Merkel’s erstwhile allies are asking a question still considered sacrilegious among much of Germany’s establishment: Is she tearing Europe apart?

“Dear Angela Merkel, after nearly 13 years as chancellor, the only thing Europe has left for you is animosity,” Malte Pieper, a correspondent of the normally staid German public broadcaster ARD said in a commentary this week that created waves in Berlin. “All the meetings in recent months have illustrated this. Help to finally stop Europe from veering toward division instead of unity! Make room in the chancellery for a successor.”

With Germany’s elites behind her, Merkel is likely to prevail in her showdown with Bavaria.

The German leader has what could well be her last chance to prove her critics wrong at this week’s European Council summit in Brussels. She is under intense pressure to return home with a deal on refugees — one that would allow her Bavarian partners, the Christian Social Union (CSU), who face a tough election campaign, to claim victory in a protracted standoff over the potent question of asylum policy. The trick will be to win such a deal without further alienating the rest of Europe.

Trouble is, Merkel is relying on an argument that is losing its resonance. What’s really at stake, Merkel has suggested time and again, isn’t Germany’s refugee policy, but the very survival of the EU.

“Europe has to stay together,” she said this month in an attempt to deflect the attacks against her. “Especially in this situation, in which Europe is in a very fragile position, it’s very, very important to me that Germany doesn’t act unilaterally.”

With the pressure on Merkel rising, much of Germany’s political and media establishment has joined that chorus. “This isn’t a debate about the future of the chancellor, it’s about the future of Europe,” Handelsblatt Editor Sven Afhüppe wrote in an editorial this week. Sigmar Gabriel, the former leader of the Social Democrats and a longtime political rival of the chancellor’s, sounded a similar note. “I only hope that Angela Merkel remains chancellor,” said Gabriel, warning of the repercussions for Europe if she doesn’t.

Such comments betray an extraordinary fear among many of Berlin’s political elites: Germany’s democratic institutions are not strong enough to preserve Europe; only Merkel can.

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Is German Chancellor Angela Merkel saving or destroying Europe? | Filip Singer/EPA

With Germany’s establishment backing her, Merkel is likely to prevail in her showdown with Bavaria. No one, not even the Bavarians, wants to be blamed for “destroying Europe.”

That reflex is a testament to Merkel’s continued influence. For whatever one’s view of the chancellor and her motives, it’s difficult to dispute that she herself divided Europe, pushing the Continent closer to the brink than ever before. One needn’t look further than the two major challenges Merkel has faced as chancellor — the eurozone debt crisis and the refugee influx.


“Angela Merkel maneuvered herself into this situation,” said Timo Lochocki, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a think tank. “Her actions in the eurozone and refugee crises irritated many European allies she now needs. And the unsolved conflict within her own party over refugee matters alienated its conservative wing, foremost the CSU.”

Berlin’s insistence that Greece and other European countries with debt troubles impose tough austerity on their populations — whatever the long-term merits of such policies — exacerbated the economic divide within the eurozone, and deepened resentment of German economic might.

And not just in bailout countries like Greece. In Italy, the pressure placed on Rome by Brussels and the Frankfurt-based European Central Bank to reform its sluggish economy was widely blamed on Berlin. Even as Merkel took pains to portray Germany as Europe’s helping hand, many Europeans came to view it as a financial scold whose solidarity came at a heavy price.

If the eurocrisis cracked the Continent, the refugee crisis left a chasm.

This time around, Germany wasn’t offering to help, it was asking for it. And the answer from much of the rest of Europe was a clear “No.”

When Merkel agreed to take in thousands of refugees stranded in Hungary’s main train station in the summer of 2015, she viewed it both as a humanitarian act and a gesture of European solidarity. Her expectation was that other EU countries would “do their part” and accept some of the refugees.

When they refused, Merkel enlisted Brussels’ help to introduce quotas that would force countries to accept refugees. That too failed. As the influx of refugees into Germany reached record levels, the rest of Europe became even more convinced that they wanted no part of Merkel’s humanitarian mission.

After having their own refugee problems ignored for years by Berlin, Spain and Italy felt little urge to come to Merkel’s rescue. In Eastern Europe, countries with little experience of migration or Islam, wondered why they should sacrifice their cultural homogeneity to help the German chancellor.

Though Merkel now warns against unilateral action, it was her unilateral move in 2015 that landed Europe in the mess it now finds itself, her critics say.

Instead of fostering European unity, the debate over the Merkel-sponsored refugee quotas helped fuel the resurgence of identity politics in countries like Hungary, Austria and Italy. During the U.K. referendum on EU membership in 2016, Brexit campaigners used images of refugees en-route to Germany as an example of everything that had gone wrong in Europe.

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Germany struggled to cope with an influx of refugees — and the far right took advantage | Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images

Indeed, Merkel’s refugee policy alienated not just Germany’s European partners, but much of her own political alliance. As Germany struggled to cope with the influx, Merkel, who long enjoyed near universal appeal, became a polarizing figure at home. The Euroskeptic Alternative for Germany party, which had nearly fizzled into oblivion just before the refugee crisis, sprang back to life with a hard, anti-immigrant message.

What puzzles many observers about Merkel’s reaction to Europe’s growing disunion is that her response has effectively been to sit on her hands.

In the throes of the eurocrisis, Merkel signaled that once stability returned, she would embrace a much bolder vision of the eurozone, setting it on a path toward more political integration. Many in Europe believed such a push was necessary, both to ensure the euro’s longterm survival as well as to reinvigorate the EU after years of economic turmoil and political division.

So when Emmanuel Macron was elected French president on a decidedly pro-European platform, expectations ran high that under Merkel’s leadership Germany would finally jump over its shadow, accept more risk and loosen its purse strings in the name of a united EU.

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Merkel has held French President Emmanuel Macron at arm’s length since he was elected in 2017 | Friedemann Vogel/AFP via Getty Images

Instead, Merkel waited a year to engage Macron on European reform. What she offered in the end, as even her staunch supporters acknowledge, is a far cry from the great leap forward many had been hoping for — a vague promise for a “fiscal capacity” for the eurozone of a few billion euros.

Merkel, worried about alienating her conservative base, blinked.

Meanwhile, with next year’s European election fast approaching, the window of opportunity for bold action opened by Macron is quickly closing.

When it comes to refugees, Merkel is equally unlikely to deliver. She has all but acknowledged that the best she can probably hope for from this week’s summit is that other countries will commit to help alleviate Germany’s burden with narrow bilateral deals.

That may be enough to keep the Bavarians at bay until election day. But even if Merkel wins the battle in Brussels, the war over her refugee policies, and by extension her political future, is certain to rage on.

How Merkel broke the EU https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-broke-the-eu-migration-crisis-refugees/
 
La Gran Coalición de Merkel sufre una catástrofe electoral en Baviera
Seguirá gobernando la CSU en coalición, al obtener el 37,2% de los votos y caer más de diez puntos
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Actualizado:15/10/2018 07:43h93Las elecciones en Baviera pueden hacer temblar Berlín

Los augurios eran malos. El desastre se ha consumado. Las elecciones de Baviera han concluido con un resultado catastrófico para los dos partidos tradicionales, la democracia cristiana de CDU/CSU y la socialdemocracia del SPD, que son los que gobiernan juntos en la coalición de Berlín bajo Angela Merkel. La CSU, la Unión Socialcristiana, pierde su histórica y legendaria mayoría absoluta con la que ha gobernado 60 años sin interrupción y cae 10 puntos. En contra de las primeras informaciones que le daban un resultado aun peor, con ese 37,2% se excluye la posibilidad de un gobierno ni cuatripartito en contra de la CSU. Por eso, como ya anunció el domingo el presidente Markus Söder, será este partido el que asuma la tarea de formar gobierno en alianza con uno o dos partidos.

Todo indica que será la peculiar formación de los Electores Libres (FW), que obtuvo el 11,6% de los votos, la que forme mayoría con la CSU. Pero la continuidad de un presidente bávaro de la CSU no podrá evitar que sean masivos y profundos los cambios que este resultado provoca en el escenario político y en las estructuras de poder de Baviera. El domingo acabó una larga era histórica del carácter único de la política bávara. La CSU se convierte en un partido más. Y jamás volverá a tener el poder que tuvo que era único en la Europa democrática.

Los líderes de la CSU insistieron por supuesto en que, siendo el resultado muy malo, su partido tiene 19 puntos más que el segundo partido más votado que son Los Verdes, que obtuvo el 17,5% de las papeletas. Y, aquí está el mensaje, está 11 puntos por encima del 26% que los sondeos otorgan al partido hermano, la CDU de Merkel.

La Gran Coalición de Merkel sufre una catástrofe electoral en Baviera https://www.abc.es/internacional/ab..._source=tw&ns_linkname=noticia-video&ns_fee=0 vía @abc_es
 
POLITICS

THE INCLINING THRONE OF "UNBREAKABLE" MERKEL


19.10.2018
Germany


The ruling coalition CDU / CSU and SPD rankings in Germany reached a historic low. After the failure in Bavaria and investigations against the Minister of Defense Ursula von der Lyayen a new blow to the authority of Merkel could be elections in Hesse.

According to the latest Deutschlandtrend polls, the rating of the ruling coalition within the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) fell to a record low. For the three, they scored not only the half of the votes needed for control of the Bundestag, but considerably less - 39%. The CDU / CSU is supported by 25% of voters, the SPD is 14%.

And all this in just two weeks. At the end of September, Social Democrats and conservatives enjoyed the support of 45% of the population. 17% voted for the SPD, and 28% voted for the Merkel faction.

The root causes that pull the current government in Germany to the bottom are well known. This is all the same refugee crisis that formally ended, but its relapses are constantly felt. As during the September events in Saxony, where migrants killed a German. Disagreements over refugees caused serious tensions in the ruling coalition. Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, who constantly criticized Merkel for loyalty to migrants, came under fire from the SPD for interceding for counterintelligence chief Hans-Georg Maasen, who denied the beatings of migrants during the Chemnitz riots.

There has been a crisis not only in the government, but also within Merkel’s own party. In a secret ballot in September, the CDU deputies dismissed one of the main allies and Merkel’s right hand, the head of the Volker Cauder faction, who held this position for 13 years in a row. Cowder supported Merkel and, at the expense of his authority, “forced” the CDU / CSU deputies to support her. Against this background, authoritative German newspapers, for the first time, began to talk about the end of the era of Merkel and her departure. Now they have taken on another confidant of the Chancellor, Defense Minister Ursula von der Lyayen. The other day, the prosecutor's office of Berlin launched an investigation against her for hiring “external consultants” to work in the German Defense Ministry.

This situation is very difficult for the Merkel faction, and especially for the SPD - this is a fiasco that they both experienced in the elections in Bavaria. Whether Merkel will remain in power depends on the outcome of the elections in Hesse. According to the latest forecasts, the CDU will lose its prime minister in Hesse. These elections may put an end to the coalition of the CDU and the SPD. Hessen is the only land where the Right Party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has not yet been represented.

The land elections in Bavaria, where the CSU almost for the first time since 1945 lost an absolute majority of votes, gaining 37%, were another confirmation of the rapid decline in the influence of Merkel and her faction on German politics. Even if Merkel’s Bavarian sister would have wanted to join the coalition with the SPD (9.7%), she would not have enough votes to form a government. And if AfD will be able to gain at least 15% in this federal land, and the “greens” will come to power, then this will mean the end of the era of Mrs Merkel.

The Inclining Throne of "Unbreakable" Merkel http://katehon.com/article/inclining-throne-unbreakable-merkel
 
WHY MERKEL WANTS TO CREATE A SECURITY COUNCIL IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
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POLITICS


02.10.2018
EU
Germany does not leave attempts to turn the European Union into a full-fledged state. The United States of Europe, which the leaders of the pan-European movement talked about after the war, in particular, former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, speaking at the Bavarian Ottobeuren, called for the creation of a new structure within the European Union - the Security Council. By analogy with the UN Security Council, which includes the United States, China, Britain, France and Russia, and make major decisions about the fate of the world, including economic sanctions and military actions against the aggressors. And the rest of the world must comply with these resolutions.

Recall that the EU includes 27 member countries, which greatly complicates the adoption of foreign policy decisions. After the Lisbon Agreement, which entered into force in 2009, the EU’s competencies have expanded. Since then, the “qualified majority” method (55% of member countries, 65% of the EU population) has been extended to decisions on financing the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), joint defense policy, the European police, space, energy, migration, etc. d. But in the key verdicts of the member countries remains the veto. So, if desired, Italy or Hungary could block the anti-Russian sanctions of the European Union.

Merkel and pro-European politicians seek to improve the efficiency of the European Union.

The idea of an EU Security Council is already on the agenda in Brussels. The rotation system implies that either the large member countries will be permanently represented in the Security Council, and the rest will follow each other. Or the strongest countries, like France and Germany, sometimes will not be able to participate in foreign policy decisions.The principle of unanimity in the CFSP can no longer remain a full-fledged mechanism, Merkel warned. As an example, the German Chancellor cited a "grueling" sanctions policy against Russia. Often, one or two countries, like Italy, impede the automatic extension of sanctions and bring the issue up for discussion. "Nuances" emerge when discussing the United States, Merkel noted, apparently referring to the opposition of pro-American Poland, the Baltic States and Denmark.I must say that similar initiatives in April were also put forward by the head of the German Defense Ministry, Ursula von der Lyayen, and proposed to abandon the principle of unanimity in favor of the majority method. This should, in her opinion, allow the EU to "respond instantly to crises." At the last security conference in Munich, the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, also called for this.

Centralization in Brussels is planned to be carried out not only by changing the decision-making mechanism, but also by threats of fines. Thus, according to the draft budget of the European Commission for 2021-2027, payments to countries that violate the values of the block will be reduced.

In the wake of the migration crisis in Europe, the position of the right has strengthened. The creation of the Security Council will allow leveling their influence and to impose sanctions against some countries..

Why Merkel wants to create a Security Council in the European Union http://katehon.com/article/why-merkel-wants-create-security-council-european-union
 
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